NBA Free Agency
For quite a while now, the writers of 3MW have been dismissing the upcoming free agent class. Since 2008 there’s been talk of this and with many teams targeting July 1, 2010 as their big pay-day. Teams like New York, Miami, New Jersey, Chicago and others have been putting basketball (and any potential success) on hold.
We’ll be honest and say that we’ve been hating on all the talk. We really have. Owners and general managers have chosen to put a team of 12 to 15 guys through a terrible season (or two). Not to mention everyone employed by the organisation and the somewhat 20,000 fans who turn up to your games to watch you get your asses handed to you because you’re waiting for Lebron in July, 2010. Yes, we’ve been a little against the hype surrounding the 2010 free agency. But now that it’s here, we have to talk about it…it would be rude not to!
Here is our top 20 free agents of 2010 and our thoughts on where they will land. It’s a little like trying to pick a mock-draft in that one player goes somewhere you don’t expect and the whole thing changes. Plus there’s a lot less information available about free agents, cause if you speak about it, David Stern will fine you. Sorry Commish!
1) Dwayne Wade
Why: In our opinion, Dwayne Wade is the second-best player in the NBA after Kobe Bryant. Wade already has a Championship ring, and has proven he can lead a team and make his team-mates better. No-one else could have taken that terrible Miami team to the 5th seed in the East. Although, we do put Wade in the free agent class reluctantly because we don’t actually see him as a free agent.
Where: Miami Heat.
No question about it. Wade is loyal to his team, to Coach Riley and also to Coach Spo who did a great job given it was only his second season as head coach last season. Wade won’t be anywhere else.
2) Lebron James
Why: Not much to say here. Lebron was last season’s MVP. Some (not us) say the best basketball player on the planet. Biggest name in the game right now.
Where: New Jersey Nets
The Nets have never really had much identity (since the Dr J era). Lebron will get to create that, and be the man’ in New Jersey and soon…Brooklyn. Only the Knicks can offer the money and captaincy/on court ownership of a team like the Nets can. New Jersey will push hard, and the Knicks will be much sexier….but we’re picking NJ.
3) Chris Bosh
Why: Bosh is the best big man available. He’s a good person, a good player, and seems very much like his time in Toronto is up. Toronto is a tough market to keep players happy, especially when places like Miami & New York have money to spend!
Where: Miami Heat.
Bosh wants to go where he’s got some talent around him, but will still be treated & respected as one of the elite players in the league. Miami can give him that, and the weather is a bit better than Toronto.
4) Dirk Nowitzki
Why: Dirk is being forgotten in this draft class. Perhaps teams feel it’s a given he’ll return to Dallas, but he’s a restricted free agent. Dallas may not match the money if they feel they can let Dirk go and get (for example) Amare or Boozer instead. Dirk is one of the best closers in the game, and will still be an elite power forward in the NBA for another 5 years.
Where: Phoenix Suns
Dirk is walking away from $21.5M with Dallas to be unrestricted free agent. He surely knows that he won’t get $21.5M anywhere else at the moment, so we can assume that Dirk isn’t driven by the almighty dollar at this point in his career. With Amare leaving Phoenix, the Suns would be a great spot fit for Dirk to reunite with Steve Nash.
5) Joe Johnson
Why: Joe is a really nice player and a good team-mate to boot. Any other year, he’d be the number 1 free agent out there.
Where: Chicago Bulls
Johnson looked a little disheartened in the playoffs, seemingly he was realizing that his Hawks team just didn’t have the tools to get it done and the Atlanta fans booed him. We don’t see him going back to Atlanta at all. The Bulls also have a great PG for him to play off, and a big hole at SG for him to slot into. The Knicks are also a good chance here, with D’Antoni & Joe’s relationship from Phoenix.
6) David Lee
Why: Lee is an underrated player and would be a better addition to any team than Boozer or Stoudamire. Lee has a great attitude to the game, to his team, and gets the job done with no talk in the media and no issues.
Where: New York Knicks
New York could have screwed Lee last summer. They only had to pay him $3M to keep him for another season, and every other team had withdrawn their offers to Lee. But the Knicks paid him $7M, knowing that he was worth it. We think Lee will stay loyal to the Knicks like they’ve done to him.
7) Amare Stoudamire
Why: There is no doubt the guy has talent. 6-10, athletic and huge scoring ability. Questionable defensively, but Bigs like Amare don’t grow on trees and if he wanted to work on his defense he could be the best big in the game.
Where: Chicago Bulls
The Suns are due to offer Amare a contract any day now, but our thinking is he’ll get overexcited about free agency and look to move.
8 ) Carlos Boozer
Why: Boozer is definitely talented, but in our 3MW eyes, he’s the fourth option behind Amare, Dirk & David Lee. Boozer has never shown that he’s loyal, and teams may wonder if it’s worth giving $20M to a guy who would be happy to play in Iceland as long as the money was right.
Where: New Jersey Nets
Boozer will follow the coin, which NJ have a lot ot. The money will be more than Utah can match, and the Jazz won’t match it when Paul Millsap is slowly but surely becoming a better player than Boozer.
9) Rudy Gay
Why: Rudy ain’t going back to Memphis. He openly told the media he was disappointed that he didn’t get offered a contract extension. And it was further evident that he was going to be moving on by the games he had in buildings where they will have money this off-season. He tallied 41 points at Miami, 33 at Philadelphia, 29 at New Jersey and 27 at New York for a guy who averaged only 19 a game?
Where: New York Knicks
The Knicks will have money, but not the roster to attract the big names. Plus, Gay will get an opportunity to be an integral part of the offence in New York, which is something as a young guy he really needs. He’s not at the stage in his career where he’s ready to be a role-player, he wants to be a focal point of the offense. Gay will get offered good money, and Memphis won’t match it. They are already at $47M, and you can be sure that the Grizz don’t want to get into luxury tax territory. The franchise literally doesn’t have the coin to match any offers out there.
10) Ray Allen
Why: Ray Allen has never looked better. We are dead serious. The guy has always had the offense, always had the best looking jumper in NBA history, but in the NBA playoffs and finals, Allen became a defensive stopper. He’s still fit, still agile, still shooting the lights out, and now is one of the league’s best perimeter defenders aswell.
Where: New Jersey Nets
The C’s have 5 players under contract totaling over $55M already. They have a lot of spots to fill, and not a lot of money available. New Jersey have an owner with deep pockets, and if we’re right, they’ll have Lebron James.
11) Luis Scola
Why: Scola had a great season last year. He was at times the best player on the Rockets team.
Where: Houston Rockets
Houston have openly publicized that they will re-sign him at all costs. That other teams shouldn’t bother even offering a contract, because Houston will match it. We think it’s a good ploy to try and stop teams from taking him. Yao Ming ($17.6M) and Jared Jeffries ($6.9M) will both take their player options, and blow the Rockets salaries out to $58M. So whatever they pay Scola, it’s going to cost them double with luxury tax. But we think with Yao unlikely to return, that they won’t have a choice but to keep Scola and suck up paying the extra funds.
12) John Salmons
Why: John Salmons was a big reason the Bucks were successful towards the end of last season. And in Chicago the year before, he was a HUGE factor in the Bulls team that took the 08 NBA Champ Celtics to 7 games in the first round.
Where: New York Knicks
Salmons’ camp have already told the Bucks he won’t be back, hence the trade the Bucks made for Corey Maggette. But Salmons could be a key signing for a Knicks team needing help on both ends of the floor at the 2 & 3 spots and has a lot of money to offer him.
13) Randy Foye
Why: There are not a lot of point guards in this year’s free agent crop. Foye will be rather sought-after. A scoring combo guard who plays the point well? It’s a no-brainer he’s leaving Washington with Arenas back on deck and John Wall arriving from the draft. Especially when Foye, as talented & young as he is, was due only $4.8M in the final year that the Wiz didn’t offer him. Even at $5 or $6M, he’s a bargain.
Where: New York Knicks
Our thinking is that the Knicks certainly have the coin, but don’t have the names on the roster to attract free agents like Miami (Wade), New Jersey (Devin Harris, Brook Lopez), Chicago (Noah, Rose, Deng) or LA Clippers (Baron Davis, Chris Kaman & Blake Griffin). So New York will end up with the second-tier free agents, and even the third-tier.
14) Mike Miller
Why: Miller can shoot the lights out. And after a few disappointing seasons, he’ll be looking for a situation where he can focus on shooting the rock again.
Where: Boston Celtics
The C’s will put a lot of pressure on Miller. He’s very Boston and it’s already out there that they are keen on bringing Miller’s hot hand to Beantown.
15) Al Harrington
Why: Love him or hate him (for the record, we love him), Harrington is one of the league’s better offensive players. Regardless of his situation, Al gets it done. Start at the 3. No, start at the 4. No, come off the bench. Which Al did last season and averaged 17.7ppg & 5.6rebs. Doesn’t talk about it, doesn’t bitch & whine, just plays ball.
Where: New York
New York liked Harrington last year. Pending a good offer from an LA Clippers
16) Udonis Haslem
Why: Udonis is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He has done everything that’s been asked of him in Miami, he respects his team-mates, his coaches, he works hard, he plays defence…not much else you can ask of the guy.
Where: Miami Heat
No way Udonis is going anywhere but Florida. He’s as loyal as they come.
17) Brendan Haywood
Why: The best thing that ever happened to Brendan Haywood was being traded to Dallas where he could show how effective he could be in the right system.
Where: Dallas Mavericks
Word is, that Haywood was happy with the change to Dallas. The Mavs really want to retain him and even though teams like Atlanta & Utah have a need at centre and would be able to offer Haywood the money he deserves, we think he’ll stay in Dallas.
18 ) Kyle Lowry
Why: Lowry was great off the bench for Houston last season, averaging 9pts & 4.5ass. Imagine if they started him?
Where: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors aren’t enamored with their back-court for some reason, and talked about drafting Avery Bradley. We think they’ll a free agent PG who takes their fancy and work to trade either Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, or both.
19) Anthony Morrow
Why: Dude can play! In the final month of 2009-10, he averaged 18.8ppg & 5.5 rebs on 47% shooting. Also shot 53% from three in April. Really hit some stride by seasons end and would be a great signing.
Where: Minnesota Timberwolves
They need some help at the 2 & 3 spots, and whilst they’ve made it clear that they intend to chase Rudy Gay, we think that Minnesota isn’t sexy enough yet to lure someone like Gay and that Morrow will be a little further down the list. Mind you, Morrow isn’t far off being in the same class as Rudy Gay or John Salmons.
20) Brad Miller
Why: Miller was a huge difference for the Bulls last season. He gave them great minutes off the bench, great defense, great passing, stretched the opposing D with his range. He is great in the locker room and he does so many things well. Not to many backup centres better than Brad Miller.
Where: Chicago Bulls
Brad Miller is smart, and he will know that regardless of the money that Boston will offer him, that he’s just going to help form another old Boston Celtics team. Mind you, he’d probably be a great fit in Boston, but we think that the Bulls will get another PF/C in free agency and Miller will have the opportunity to pick his spots a bit more in Chicago and perhaps lengthen his career.
Honorable mentions:
Wesley Matthews, Ronnie Brewer, Shaquille O’Neal, Matt Barnes and Jermaine O’Neal
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T-Mac and Iverson didn’t even get honorable mentions. Ouch.
Amare is what these fools come up with after 2 years of trying to open up cap room! They are going to compensate the guy 100 million and he possesses terrible knees as well as vision troubles. Has Isiah come back and start working at the general manager job once again? At this pace it’s going to be another 10 years until the team could make virtually any run in the playoffs.